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Author Topic: so how is the economy?  (Read 671 times)

unix

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so how is the economy?
« on: May 26, 2018, 06:55:04 am »
I have my own opinion but wanted to hear other reports from the trenches.

I see a lot of sales, a lot of discounts on everything which suggests people aren't spending.

20% off on this, 25% off on that. On everything. Automotive, clothing, household and in private sales as well.



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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2018, 07:55:24 am »
My opinion is that we have a constantly-declining "new normal" with minor upticks. In other words, the centerline or baseline what is considered a good economy today is continually declining from what we expected in the past. The full employment economy of 2018 looks like a minor depression compared to the full employment economy of 1998.

All I know is what I see locally here in Ohio. A house that 10 years ago would have gone for 110 (maybe) closed on our street recently for 178K.  Nothing by DC standards but by flyover standards we have some strong real estate speculation going on here. I constantly get a post card from some slumlord company that wants to buy my house for a rental (most of my street is owner occupied by a wide margin so I am sure they would be eager to fuck up our neighborhood for a quick profit.)

And Ohio is meth junkie and poor education / low economic value central where nobody can make anything good or valuable.
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unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2018, 11:53:15 am »
There is in a contradiction in higher real estate prices and the 'new low'.

Weird. Wouldn't you think that as we establish a 'new low', real estate would suffer as a result? Yet a new bubble is forming, or seems to be.

Housing in DC area is all over 400K for anything. The salaries are higher than in the fly-over wasteland but not so much higher to make it cheaper.
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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2018, 03:15:25 am »
There is in a contradiction in higher real estate prices and the 'new low'.

Weird. Wouldn't you think that as we establish a 'new low', real estate would suffer as a result? Yet a new bubble is forming, or seems to be.

Housing in DC area is all over 400K for anything. The salaries are higher than in the fly-over wasteland but not so much higher to make it cheaper.
This will change at some point.  Remember how For Sale signs sprout up everywhere when the real estate market turns south? 
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JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2018, 03:24:35 pm »
The real estate market is starting to heat up where I live, but it isn't there yet.  We have a new big company that will be coming into the area soon and that will boost property values, I hope .

unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2018, 11:37:02 am »
Interesting.

The real estate market heating up does not make any sense - to me.
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JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2018, 02:34:22 pm »
The reason it makes sense is now there are new jobs brought to the area.  We lost thousands of jobs out where I live when Merck moved out.  Now, we have a new, big company taking over their facility.  I think its Unicom.  People will want to live near where they are working and maybe I can sell my house.  Its a great place for someone younger.  I can't deal with all the property anymore.

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2018, 06:54:48 pm »
Interesting.

The real estate market heating up does not make any sense - to me.

As Jo noted in her area, in my area (comparable in some ways to Central Jersey, a bit) a lot of factories relocate here and that drives jobs... a bit. But I honest don't see either jobs or wages driving wealth much in my area for the general public.

I have read that residential real estate appreciation is on a huge upward spike nationally.  My guess is that investors are simply deploying cash to investments other than the stock market or Bitcoin as a risk mitigation tactic.

IE - what does the money supply (M-numbers) indicate?
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Washington Post article on alarming economy statistics
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2018, 06:18:20 am »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/25/the-alarming-statistics-that-show-the-u-s-economy-isnt-as-good-as-it-seems

According to two reports by the Federal Reserve and United Way:

* 40% of American adults don't have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency expense

* 43% of households can't afford the basics to live, meaning they aren't earning enough to cover the combined costs of housing, food, child care, health care, transportation and a cellphone

* 22% of adults aren't able to pay all of their bills every month.

Quote
We have a ‘Two Realities’ economy in America,” said William Rodgers, a professor at Rutgers University and chief economist at the Heldrich Center for Workforce Development. “One segment has truly recovered from the Great Recession and is at full employment. The other continues to experience stagnating wages, involuntary part-time employment, inflexible work schedules and weaker access to health care.

Quote
President Trump and many Republicans in Congress are focused on getting people back to work with the belief that once people have jobs they will be able to lift themselves out of poverty. But a growing body of research like the Fed and United Way studies and anecdotes from people working on the front lines at food banks and shelters indicates that a job is no longer enough.

Quote
Half of the people we serve are above the poverty level. They are working, but they are not making it,” said Catherine D'Amato, president of the Greater Boston Food Bank. “It’s a deep struggle for people to provide for themselves based on their wages.”

D'Amato has worked at food banks and pantries since 1979, but she says she's never seen it like it is today with so many people with jobs but still unable to survive. October and November were the highest food bank usage on record for her organization, a reminder that many are still not stable years after the Great Recession officially ended in 2009.
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JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 02:55:16 pm »
Its going to take years for the economy to improve.  The Great Recession decimated the middle and lower classes.  We were fleeced.  It killed the job market and drained everyone's savings.  The Obama economy was stagnant for 8 years and created a lot of lower paying, part-time jobs.  The ACA didn't help that situation with the 30 hour a week rule.  Companies made a lot of people part-time to avoid giving healthcare to their employees.

Obamacare was just too expensive and it didn't fix the real problems with healthcare.  The cost of drugs and treatment.

At least now we have a chance to get back to where we were with the growing Trump economy.  I'm not expecting overnight miracles, but things are improving.  My husband has more money in his paycheck and we did get more money back from income tax, so we benefitted from the tax cuts.  The IRA is doing better, so I'm seeing improvement.  I'm doing a little better financially than I've done in many years.  We want to retire, but can't yet because of the cost of healthcare.  We need his medical insurance.  Later this year we will both go on Medicare for everything and will retire.


unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2018, 03:59:33 pm »

I think the real situation is far worse than being admitted on the forums, or anywhere. Aside from a few hotspots like DC.
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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2018, 05:25:21 pm »

I think the real situation is far worse than being admitted on the forums, or anywhere. Aside from a few hotspots like DC.
That's what the Federal Reserve and United Way reports referenced in the Post article say.  I've read about the large number of people who can't handle an unexpected $400 bill for a couple of years now.  It's hard to believe, but that's what the Fed is tracking:

Quote
One of the most widely watched statistics in the Fed's “Report on the Economic Well-being of U.S. Households” is how many adults say they could cover an unexpected $400 expense. When the survey was released for the first time in 2013, half of those surveyed said they didn't have enough savings to cover an emergency expense of a few hundred dollars.

Today that has fallen to 40 percent, a figure that is better but still troubling to many economists. It means nearly 48 million households aren't saving or are unable to save.

I.e. their cash flow is a net <= 0 and they have no way of borrowing money.








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JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2018, 03:19:39 pm »
Its going to take years to recover from the beating we took in 2008 and lack of good paying jobs since then.  Hopefully, that is coming back.  As the baby boomers retire, hopefully those jobs will go to American workers. We should keep the good paying jobs for Americans.

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2018, 04:15:58 pm »
It's going to take years to recover from the beating we took in 2008 and lack of good paying jobs since then.  Hopefully, that is coming back.  As the baby boomers retire, hopefully those jobs will go to American workers. We should keep the good paying jobs for Americans.

You are dreaming.   What good paying jobs are you talking about?    We are on a downhill slide regardless of what the stats say.   The unemployment raw numbers have dropped but what they don't tell you is the fact that the jobs out there are at a significantly lower wage than they were a few years ago.   Many people can't survive on what they make now.  And many people have simply dropped out of the workforce and are no longer counted in the unemployment numbers.

Also, American workers??  These large corporations don't give a rat's behind about American workers.   At the bank where I currently consult, I am one of the rare Americans there.   Most of the people are from India.

I am very close to hanging it up with corporate America.   I am simply fed up with the thieves that run these corporations.

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2018, 06:11:24 pm »
You hear a lot about "lazy" millennials not going out and getting decent-paying jobs so they can support themselves.  Another possibility is that they can't because good jobs are in short supply. 

Although I suppose another explanation is that there was so much whining about working in a boss-worker environment by us baby boomers that they don't want any part of it.
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