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Author Topic: so how is the economy?  (Read 511 times)

JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2018, 03:07:56 pm »
Pxsant, if the labor market tightens, companies will have to offer workers better salaries and benefits.  Curbs are being put on immigration and visa over stayers.  This is good news for IT workers, finally.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/trump-administration-issues-new-h1-b-visa-guidelines/

Also, companies benefited greatly from the lowering of the corporate tax rate making the US more competitive in the world market.  There was a great jobs report for the last month and there is more employment.  Maybe all of the jobs aren't fabulous, but they're better than we've seen for a long, long time - and they're full time.  In a couple of years, P. Trump's policies are going to pay off, IMO.

I'm seeing a lot of small business "help wanted" signs now.  A lot of people just do everyday jobs, like waitressing, retail, hospitality or more blue-collar occupations.  Its an upward trend for them.

The "lazy" millennial son of my neighbor finally found some kind of a job and moved out of the basement.  Before that he was a "personal trainer", part time.  He rode his father's motorcycle to and from his "sessions".  They couldn't wait for him to go.  He was close to 27.  I think a lot of young people don't understand you have to work your way up to the job you want, you don't just walk into it because you have a college degree. 

unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2018, 04:23:13 pm »

I think the real situation is far worse than being admitted on the forums, or anywhere. Aside from a few hotspots like DC.
That's what the Federal Reserve and United Way reports referenced in the Post article say.  I've read about the large number of people who can't handle an unexpected $400 bill for a couple of years now.  It's hard to believe, but that's what the Fed is tracking:

Quote
One of the most widely watched statistics in the Fed's “Report on the Economic Well-being of U.S. Households” is how many adults say they could cover an unexpected $400 expense. When the survey was released for the first time in 2013, half of those surveyed said they didn't have enough savings to cover an emergency expense of a few hundred dollars.

Today that has fallen to 40 percent, a figure that is better but still troubling to many economists. It means nearly 48 million households aren't saving or are unable to save.

I.e. their cash flow is a net <= 0 and they have no way of borrowing money.


Yes and that is the proverbial canary in the coal mine?

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ilconsiglliere

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2018, 04:55:33 am »
You cant believe anything from the Federal Reserve. These are the same people that have the most bizarre inflation and unemployment calculations known to man. They literally make no sense. Realize that that the Fed has caused every recession and depression via them messing with the money supply.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200017/state-unemployment-rate-in-the-us/

Here in the PRNJ (People's Republic of NJ) I am not seeing any recovery at least not in IT. The IT job market here has been stagnant for years. It has never stopped being stagnant. Basically everywhere you go now the entire IT department is foreigners.

Though my client has recently posted external job ads. I was told that they got 3000 resumes for 5 openings. I submitted on one and got nothing even though I work there. I know the Wall Street guys (traders and investment bankers) are doing very well. Not so the IT people though in their companies.

What I am seeing though is the real estate market is very hot. I have some friends that are realtors and as soon as a house is put on the market people are bidding them up. The market here for houses that are below 600K is crazy. A normal sized house (not a mcmansion) in a very good town will sell in literally 3-4 days. Even houses in not as good towns are selling quick. A lot of this is being driven by millennials and speculators.

Realize that the cost of houses in NJ is very high relative to most of the country except for places like CA and DC which it seems to be about the same.

The Gorn

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2018, 08:55:40 am »
I've always considered the area around me here in SW Ohio near Cincinnati to be semi-depressed. BUT, we've observed home sale closings that are far higher than I'd expect.

I bought my current house (at the time a bit of a dump, and around 1000 SF) for $83K in 1994. It has a basement. Since then we've totally updated it.

A house of similar age and size, no basement, no detached garage, with a nice looking flagstone exterior, a few houses up the street recently went for $179K.

This street is middle blue collar. Kind of amazes me what people around here with the shitty wage scales here can afford.

I read a day ago or so that analysts expect VERY strong home price inflation due to rising costs of lumber and supply demand, particularly at the low level. In other words those dumpy blue collar houses will be rising the fastest in price.

I think the overvalued stock market has to do with it. I get postcard ads from investors to buy our house. Therefore rental housing investment is helping to drive lower end home prices.

Those prices nudge higher priced houses upward, too. a $179K house around here 10 years ago was in a NIIICE new development. Now it's on this older street.
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unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2018, 12:50:40 pm »
I've come to realize, some years ago that there is nothing good about a boom and a recession isn't all that bad. Maybe the opposite.
Consider:

 Boom times:
    * Everything gets more expensive
     * Real estate goes into the stratosphere
      * Everyone has jobs
     

Recession:

   * Sales sales sales on everything - including real estate
    * Deals everywhere on things.

Just yesterday Ebay had a 20% off on everything sale. To stimulate the economy. You know why? 'cause people ain't buying.

Anytime you see massive sales on things, you know a recession is either right here, right now or just around the corner


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JoFrance

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2018, 01:52:23 pm »
That's very true, unix.  I get ebay emails now pushing products that I never got over the past few years.  My house gained a little value.  There are a lot more jobs, but I don't think we'll see any kind of dramatic recession.  Maybe a mild one that puts the brakes on a little.

The Gorn

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2018, 07:08:49 pm »
Of course you guys are smart enough to know that:

Recession, depression and other measures of economic health are broad judgements of the overall economy's state.

In a recession a lot more people are out of work. Unix and I know about this first hand. So those savings on slightly depressed product prices are theoretical because a larger part of the public can't afford anything anyway.

In a recession, business investment slows down dramatically so there is less momentum yet for hiring.

If I have a wad of money in the bank or an assured job, then hell yes, a recession is good news.

If I really need a job during a recession, not so much.

In boom times, everything just seems easier. Even at an individual level.

Your own stocks are rising, and your job feels more secure, so you can relax and buy what you need, albeit at slightly higher prices.
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unix

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Re: so how is the economy?
« Reply #22 on: June 11, 2018, 03:50:52 pm »
He_is_right_you_know.jpg

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